Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Saham Untuk Mengambil Keputusan Investasi pada Saham Sektor Telekomunikasi yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia: Studi Kasus Saham XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL)

Putri Kemala Dewi; Marsanda Hutagalung; Vingky Dwi Pratama; Zulfa Afifah

doi:10.57235/jleb.v3i1.5791

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Saham Untuk Mengambil Keputusan Investasi pada Saham Sektor Telekomunikasi yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia: Studi Kasus Saham XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL)

Putri Kemala Dewi⁽¹⁾, Marsanda Hutagalung⁽²⁾, Vingky Dwi Pratama⁽³⁾, Zulfa Afifah⁽⁴⁾,

(1) Universitas Negeri Medan
(2) Universitas Negeri Medan
(3) Universitas Negeri Medan
(4) Universitas Negeri Medan

Corresponding Author

Abstract

Penelitian ini menganalisis efektivitas analisis teknikal dalam memprediksi pergerakan harga saham XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL) di Bursa Efek Indonesia periode 2019–2023. Melalui pendekatan kuantitatif deskriptif-analitis, studi ini menguji akurasi indikator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), dan Moving Average (MA) dalam menghasilkan sinyal beli/jual, serta mengidentifikasi pola grafik kritis seperti double bottom dan head and shoulders. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kombinasi MACD (12,26,9) dan RSI (14 hari) dengan konfirmasi volume transaksi mencapai tingkat akurasi 68%, mampu mengantisipasi tren bullish maupun bearish, termasuk fluktuasi ekstrem selama pandemi COVID-19 dan pasca-akuisisi PT. Link Net (2023). Volatilitas bulanan saham EXCL tercatat sebesar 18,2%, dengan level support utama di Rp1.950–Rp2.000 dan resistance psikologis di Rp3.000. Temuan ini merekomendasikan strategi investasi hibrid yang mengintegrasikan analisis teknikal dengan evaluasi fundamental, khususnya pada sektor telekomunikasi yang sensitif terhadap perubahan regulasi dan ekspansi korporasi. Penelitian ini berkontribusi pada pengembangan metodologi analisis teknikal di pasar berkembang serta memberikan panduan praktis bagi investor dalam mengoptimalkan risk-reward ratio.

Keywords

Analisis Teknikal, Sektor Telekomunikasi, Saham EXCL, MACD, RSI, Volatilitas Harga

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